An Economist’s Data-Backed Case for Vaccines

Why finger-wagging anti-vaxxers isn’t enough

Emily Oster
Elemental

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Illustration: Renderburger

EEmotions run high on the topic of vaccination. People resent being forced to make choices for their children that they are not comfortable with, and others resent having their children put at risk when their classmates aren’t vaccinated. There are active protest groups on both sides, and in the meantime, cases of preventable disease are on the rise.

The tally of measles cases in the United States this year has reached 626, as of April 19. This exceeds the total number of yearly cases for 2018 and 2017. If contagion continues at this rate, the nation is on track for the most measles cases per year in the last decade. Authorities have even declared a health emergency in parts of Brooklyn, New York.

This caseload is still low by historical standards. In the 1950s, in the U.S., a typical year would see 3 million to 4 million measles cases. The overall decline in measles since the 1950s happened for the same reason that measles rates are currently rising: the ebb and flow of vaccination.

The measles vaccine was introduced in 1963. By 1968, the number of yearly measles cases had dropped from 4 million to under 50,000. By the early 1980s, the figures were close to zero.

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Emily Oster
Elemental

Professor of Economics, Brown University. Author: Expecting Better and CRIBSHEET (April 2019). Goal: creating a world of more relaxed pregnant women and parents