Contact Tracing the President
How did he get the virus, and who else might he have infected? Let the detective work begin.
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It was the tweet heard ‘round the world: President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump tested positive for Covid-19. Only a few hours later, there is rampant speculation about the timeline and source of the president’s infection. How did he contract the virus, and who else might he have infected? Two epidemiologists shared with Elemental how they approach this question from a contact tracing perspective. Let the detective work begin.
When was Trump exposed to the virus?
The current assumption is that after a person gets infected with the novel coronavirus, it takes at least 48 hours to produce enough viral particles to both be contagious and to test positive. It can take another two days before the immune system kicks in and the infected person develops symptoms. However, both of these time frames can be extended, either because it takes more time for the virus to replicate, and/or because the immune system needs more time to ramp up.
“50% of people who are exposed and will go on to get symptoms get them by day five, which means that they could potentially have tested positive as early as day three [post-infection],” says Eleanor Murray, ScD, an assistant professor of epidemiology at Boston University. “97% have developed symptoms by day eleven.”
With a first positive test on Thursday and the onset of mild symptoms on Friday, Trump was likely exposed to the virus either late last week or early this week.
“The situation at the White House is different from what it would be for the general public. Because they’re doing daily testing, you can really identify the 24-hour window when somebody was likely infectious to others or not.”
How did the president get infected?
One theory is that he got the virus from White House aide Hope Hicks, who tested positive on either Wednesday evening or Thursday morning (accounts are conflicting). Notably, Hicks…
