Covid-19 Case Counts Have Been Spiking for Weeks. Why Aren’t Deaths?
Experts say a handful of variables explain the apparent disconnect between cases and deaths
After slowly gathering momentum during the first quarter of the year, the number of U.S. Covid-19 cases and deaths surged in early April. By the middle of that month, more than 30,000 Americans were testing positive for the novel coronavirus every day, and roughly 2,500 were dying, according to figures from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
But then, for a time, that initial wave seemed to be breaking. Daily case counts declined as spring turned into summer. Deaths fell steadily. But these encouraging trends didn’t last. A second wave of cases — or maybe just a resurgence of the initial wave — began around the middle of June. Case counts have since increased sharply and show no sign of slowing.
On July 9, there were nearly 65,000 new daily cases of Covid-19 — roughly double the late-April average. But deaths have not followed suit. While the last week has witnessed an uptick in deaths from the June nadir, line graphs of deaths are no longer mirroring the line graphs of new cases.
That may change any day. There is usually a one- or two-week lag between a rise in cases and an associated…
