Illustration: Kieran Blakey

The Nuance

This is What Could Make or Break the U.S. This Fall

If the United States doesn’t get its act together, it’s going to be a tough autumn

Elemental
Published in
5 min readAug 6, 2020

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As May gave way to June, rates of Covid-19 cases and deaths were falling across much of the United States, especially in New York, New Jersey, Michigan, and many of the virus’s springtime hot spots. Some epidemiological models even predicted that warm and sunny weather, coupled with more open windows and outdoor-centric lifestyles, would push infection rates so low that much of America could return to a state of relative normalcy.

Of course, things haven’t played out that way. Falling case and death counts helped lull many parts of the country into a false sense of security. In many states, imprudent reopenings, coupled with poor adherence to commonsense safety measures, gave a dwindling virus a big boost. “We declared victory at a plateau a couple months ago, and now we have a brand-new peak that has broken the previous record by twice the magnitude,” says Mark Cameron, PhD, an associate professor in the Department of Population and Quantitative Health Sciences at Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine in Cleveland.

Cameron and other experts say that if the United States makes the right moves now — starting today —…

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Elemental

I’m a frequent contributor at TIME, the New York Times, and other media orgs. I write mostly about health and science. I like long walks and the Grateful Dead.