‘This Is an Impending Catastrophe’

A conversation with Stanford epidemiologist Dr. Steve Goodman

David Goodman
Elemental

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CImage: zhangshuang/Getty Images

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This is an overreaction.

That was my first thought upon receiving an email from my son’s college earlier this week informing me that he had to leave campus within five days due to the threat of Covid-19, or coronavirus. All of his college classes are being moved online, and all students are to leave their dorms for the duration of the school year. His long-anticipated freshman year in college will now be completed in his bedroom — upstairs in my house.

Is this really necessary?

Exasperated, I called my older brother. Why, I asked, are we doing all this for a flu? And why close schools that are full of young people, who reportedly only suffer mild symptoms from coronavirus?

My brother was not impressed with my take on the pandemic. He proceeded to walk me through the issues and matter-of-factly school me in the cold calculus of exponential disease spread and its consequences.

I admit that my brother knows a little more than me about such things. Steve Goodman, MD, MHS, PhD, is an associate dean at the Stanford School of Medicine, where he is Professor of…

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