When Will We Get to Herd Immunity?

Throw out the tedious calculus. It’s not that complicated. The simple answer to the question on everyone’s mind:

Photo: Andrea Lightfoot/Unsplash

Herd immunity to Covid-19 is an enigma. It’s universally sought after regardless of party affiliation, religious creed, or level of vaccine acceptance. Think about it. Are you pro-herd immunity or anti-? Pro, of course! At the same time, it’s so poorly understood. How many people does it require? Is it permanent or temporary? Will it actually change anything? When can I take this frickin mask off?!?

NFL quarterback Cam Newton once said, “Hindsight is always 50–50.” I don’t bring that up to disparage Mr. Newton. In fact, he was quick to correct his mixed metaphor just seconds later. The point is that Cam’s Newtonian intellect astutely recognized how much easier it can be to understand something after it has happened.

While many health experts have tried to predict what percentage of the population must become immune to Covid-19 in order to reach herd immunity, no one really knows for sure. But, guess what? We will indeed know… after it happens.

Herd immunity is an event that transpires when enough of a population is immune to a disease— either by vaccination or prior infection — that the disease can no longer transmit effectively. We’ll have hit herd immunity when each infected individual, on average, passes the virus to less than one additional person.

Want to know what herd immunity looks like? Here you go:

Image courtesy of yours truly; let’s hope I doctor better than I draw

Yep, it’s that simple. Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, described it succinctly, “Herd immunity is when enough people are immune for whatever reason, natural disease or vaccination, that the number of new cases drops with each successive individual.” At that moment, cases start to decline, and the curve slopes downward. That’s herd immunity.

This concept brings up a few questions. Was the United States at herd immunity at the end of January since cases started to decline…